A year can fly by. It can also last forever.

These competing views of time feel especially relevant as we assess the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

What has transpired over the last 12 months is an unmitigated human tragedy — one measured in death and dismemberment, rape and retaliation, hardship and horror. War is hell. It always has been and always will be. But the war being waged by Russian forces, some of whom are now convicts released from prison and sent to the frontlines, is a special circle of hell.

It is as much a form of terrorism as it is warfare — including the targeting, torture, and wanton murder of civilians. Vladimir Putin and other architects of this depravity could eventually face prosecution for war crimes.

But if you had said a year ago that today Kyiv would remain an independent Ukraine’s vibrant capital; that its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, would be hailed with comparisons to wartime leaders like Winston Churchill; and that the once vaunted Russian armed forces would be revealed to be a fourth-rate power (except for their nuclear arsenal), most experts in military and European affairs would have thought you were dreaming.

It’s a remarkable story, even if the ending has yet to be written. While the war defies an easy narrative, the Ukrainians, through courage, determination, resilience, and inventiveness, have proven the doubters wrong and exposed Putin as an inept bully.

Inept bullies, however, can still be very dangerous. And while besides all the sorrow there is much to be proud of and thankful for on this anniversary, the fates of the war, of Europe, and of the world remain in flux. What happens next on the battlefield will shape events around the globe.

These are dangerous and unstable times. The future could be a lot brighter. It could also be much worse. That’s what’s at stake in this conflict.

A determined alliance has rallied to Ukraine’s defense — primarily Europe, the United States, and other democracies like Canada, Australia, and Japan. They argue that the significant investment in direct financial aid and weapons systems to Ukraine should be considered a down payment on global stability. It is a free world order versus autocracy.

The rationale is that if it weren’t Ukraine fending off Putin’s territorial ambitions, someone else would have to rebuff them. Recent history lends some credence to this conclusion, as Putin’s previous misbehavior in places like Crimea was not suitably challenged.

Some observers believe that the unity of NATO and other democracies in response to Russia could act as a deterrent for China’s saber rattling and more formidable military. This conclusion is more problematic. If Ukraine is causing China to rethink their calculus in places like Taiwan, what lessons are they drawing? Are they more skittish about using military force or emboldened? Recently, China has shown an increasing interest in publicly backing Putin, although they don’t seem to have crossed a line yet of providing lethal military aid. What are we to make of that? It is clear that there is a lot of back-channel communication taking place between the United States and China on this issue, although relations between the two powers are particularly fraught at the moment.

When you pull back from Europe and consider the global community, the neat lines between the allies of Ukraine and those of Russia become blurred. India in particular seems to be straddling the fence. In a recent nonbinding United Nations resolution calling for Russian withdrawal, India abstained, along with China and 30 other countries ranging from South Africa to Vietnam to Bolivia.

In the U.S., political divisions exist around American support for Ukraine. While there are some apologists for Putin on what is considered the political far left, most of the Kremlin’s U.S. cheerleaders are on the political right. There are also many Republicans who are fierce proponents of aid to Ukraine. This debate will likely play out in the 2024 Republican presidential primary, and it might complicate President Biden's goal of securing additional aid for Ukraine.

All this adds up to a very dynamic and unknowable state of affairs. Biden deserves a lot of credit for standing up to Putin and rallying support for Ukraine. NATO is stronger than it’s been in decades. Autocrats have been put on notice. And none of this would have been possible without the courage, tenacity, and sacrifice of the Ukrainian people.

But the price of freedom is steep, in treasure as well as blood. How long will Ukraine’s allies support the war effort financially? Will we consider rolling back recent tax cuts in order to pay for a defense of democratic values? With Republicans controlling the House of Representatives, that seems unlikely. But it’s also fair to say that many Democrats are unlikely to support tax increases to pay for the war.

Also, for all the focus on Europe, the rest of the world is becoming more unstable. China in particular is flexing its power, not only in Asia but also in influence campaigns from Africa to Oceana to Latin America.

How much can the United States protect the world order? What are the limits to our power — military, diplomatic, and economic? What is our will? How fatigued are we by our existing alliances and commitments? To what crises are we not giving enough attention? North Korea? Iran? Something we are not yet predicting?

These are but a few of the urgent questions on this solemn anniversary, one in which the biggest unknown is who will win the war and what peace might look like.

The world is inherently complicated. Each era has its challenges and tragedies. But those who support the forces of freedom and democracy ultimately have more reasons for hope today than seemed possible a year ago. That is a victory in and of itself. But we cannot delude ourselves. A long, difficult, and costly road stretches ahead.

To make this progress last will take a lot more work and determination, more blood and treasure. But one other truth we know is that the Ukrainians have it in them to do this. And for that they deserve our gratitude and support.