To understand the genesis of events that brought Vladimir Putin to the brink of downfall it’s important to consider what the man who sought to topple him was saying.

It wasn’t just that Yevgeny Prigozhin was attacking Putin’s authority he was saying out loud what many outside of Russia have been saying since the full scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 began. Prigozhin has attacked the entire rational for the war. He has defined the war as unnecessary, corrupt, more about a pursuit of wealth for Russian oligarchs than any attempt to de-Nazify anything or anyone. “The war was needed by oligarchs. It was needed by the clan that is today practically ruling in Russia.”

Prigozhin would know. Himself regarded as a Russian oligarch who reaps enormous illicit profits from illegal and corrupt mining, logging and trafficking in gold and diamonds. Not mention the shockingly violent methods he and his forces engage in. Prigozhin’s alarming transgressions, and true motives not withstanding he did pull the mask off Putin’s war in Ukraine. That is why many of the residents in Rostov, the first Russian city Prigozhin’s forces occupied actually welcomed and celebrated his arrival and message.

The war is clearly not popular among Russians. The draconian tactics employed by Putin’s security forces to stifle dissent have sowed a level fear and anger not readily apparent to many observers outside Russia. The embrace of Prigozhin was not so much an endorsement of his methods as it was a rejection of Putin and specifically the very unpopular war in Ukraine.

Vladimir Putin awoke Saturday morning believing Moscow would soon be besieged and his grip on Power threatened. The situation was deemed so menacing that Russian security forces shut down multiple highways into Moscow and mobilized significant domestic forces to protect the capitol itself. A visibly shaken Putin believing the assault was imminent took to the airwaves spewing invective and threats in all directions.

The good news for Putin is that after an unlikely intervention by the perennially marginalized Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko he managed to strike an eleventh-hour deal to avoid a likely very bloody confrontation with Prigozhin and survives, for now. The bad news is that his war in Ukraine continues and he continues to be tethered to it.

Putin’s mask is off. His weakness and vulnerability have been reveled. The question is not can he survive long term, but can Russia, will Russia manage a power transition without utter chaos, instability and the potential for major human trauma. Putin has been bad not only for the world, he has been bad for Russia. Russia doesn’t need a revolution as much as it needs an evolution.